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Commodity Research Report 30 January 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf


Original filename: Commodity Research Report 30 January 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: Commodity research report
Author: w2c

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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold prices traded lower for this week tradind Sessions due to stronger US dollar. Prices traded
down over 2% this week after hitting its important weekly resistance at $ 1220. We can expect Gold
prices to trade bearish till $ 1170 to $ 1150 in coming days. We can expect a trend reversal for a
medium term target of $ 1130 to $ 1100 levels. Gold in MCX Futures trading lower for the first time in
the last five weeks. Prices down over 1.6% and finding its support at Rs. 28100 for near term. Earlier we
can see prices not able to sustain above its important key resistance at Rs.28800 levels. We can expect
prices to trade bearish in coming days till Rs.27700 to Rs.27500 levels. The Significance levels for Next
week is 28870-28935 is Up side and 28100-27960 is Down Side.
GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - The statistical and technical indicators suggest that gold was going ahead and that it was
due for a correction. one key indicator is the moving average of convergence/divergence, which is also
known as MACD, and on a weekly basis the MACD and Parabolic SAR are indicating that the next
move for gold will be up. As Gold prices and gold mining stocks approach resistance we will keep an
eye on their performance relative to the movements in other asset classes. A pullback from resistance is
very likely but the question is if the pullback evolves into a deeper correction or a bullish consolidation.
In the meantime we have focused on buying quality and value in the junior space while maintaining
some cash. The good buying opportunity we noted a month ago has passed but another one will come
soon one way or another MCX gold is getting support at 28150 and below same could see a test of
27980 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28800, a move above could see prices testing
28950.
Monday, 30 January 2017

SILVER - Silver trading weak for the fourth day in a row, refer our continuous updates that Silver
medium term trend remain bearish and expect to fall back to $16 to $15.5 levels. We can expect even a
deeper correction below $15.5 till $15 mark. MCX Silver Futures looking for a sharper downside in
coming days. Next downside is on the row below Rs.40500 till Rs.39000 to Rs.38000 levels shortly.
The Crucial levels of Silver for Next week is 41810-41980 is up side and 40850-40520 is Down side.

Detail of Chart - On the Above Given Daily Chart of Silver is preserved the psychological support
39200. MCX Silver is getting support at 40850 and below same could see a test of 39590 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 41685, a move above could see prices testing 41950.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

130

128

126

125

124

421

415

409

406

403

COPPER

28-FEB-2016

S1

S2

S3

S4

122

120

118

400

397

391

385

123

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3944

3840

3736

3672

3632

3568

3528

3424

3320

GOLD

03-FEB-2016

29168

28870

28572

28462

28274

28164

27976

27678

27380

172

167

162

159

157

154

152

147

142

27-DEC-2015

251

243

235

231

227

223

219

211

203

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

712

690

668

657

646

635

624

610

602

SILVER

03-MARCH-2016

45021

43752

42483

41957

41214

40688

39945

38676

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

199

195

191

189

187

185

183

179

LEAD
NATURAL

30-DEC-2016

GAS

37407
175

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

140

135

130

127

125

122

120

115

110

447

432

417

411

402

396

387

372

357

3989

3868

3747

3678

3626

3557

3505

3384

3263

30748

29976

29204

28778

28432

28006

27660

26888

26116

COPPER
CRUDE OIL
GOLD

28-FEB-2016
19-OCT-2016
03-FEB-2016

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

182

174

166

161

158

153

150

142

134

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

264

251

238

233

225

220

212

199

186

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

772

732

692

669

652

629

612

572

532

41275

40627

39821

38367

188

184

181

174

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 45637 44183
30-DEC-2016

209

202

42729
195

42081
191

36916
167

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

DATE
26-OCT2016

68.72

68.42

68.12

67.98

67.34

67.08

66.92

66.68

66.24

EURINR

26-OCT2016

76.67

75.06

73.93

71.48

71.01

70.82

69.86

68.03

67.50

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

89.63

88.42

84.66

82.58

80.85

79.16

77.82

75.14

73.63

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

62.52

61.98

59.47

57.95

56.88

56.46

56.05

55.85

55..43

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

DATE
26-OCT2016

69.83

68.64

68.16

68.02

67.94

67.24

67.04

66.84

66.28

EURINR

26-OCT2016

80.92

78.54

76.51

72.80

69.52

68.16

67.12

66.03

64.17

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

96.53

94.35

91.14

88.17

84.15

82.36

80.52

78.36

74.13

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

69.65

67.58

65.36

63.52

61.79

58.14

56.96

51.28

50.03

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

727

720

713

708

706

701

699

692

685

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3113

3089

3065

3056

3041

3032

3017

2993

2969

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

4013

3967

3921

3897

3875

3851

3829

3783

3737

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

20443

19628

18813

18357

17998

17542

17183

16368

15553

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3351

3326

3301

3291

3276

3266

3251

3226

3201

TMC

20-APR-2016

7113

6981

6849

6773

6717

6641

6585

6453

6321

DATE

R4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

763

746

729

722

712

705

695

678

661

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3387

3281

3175

3110

3069

3004

2963

2857

2751

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

4184

4087

3990

3932

3893

3835

3796

3699

3602

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

20443

19628

18813

18357 17998 17542 17183

16368

15553

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3787

3629

3471

3377

3313

3219

3155

2997

2839

TMC

20-APR-2016

8126

7690

7254

6976

6818

6540

6382

5946

5510

DATE

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold ended little changed on Friday, after weaker-than-expected figures on U.S. fourth quarter growth
dampened expectations for a faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. Gold for April delivery settled at
$1,190.0 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The precious metal was 1.35% lower for the week, as the stronger U.S. dollar weighed. The annual rate
of economic growth slowed to 1.9% in the three months to December the Commerce Department
reported Friday, slowing sharply from the 3.5% rate of growth seen in the third quarter. The economy
grew just 1.6% in 2016 as a whole, the slowest rate of growth since 2011. The slowdown in growth
prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve will avoid hiking interest rates too quickly. Investors also
remained cautious as they pondered the economic implications of President Donald Trump's pledges of
increased fiscal spending, tax cuts and protectionism. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was
at $ 17.16 a troy ounce late Friday and ended the week little changed. Copper was trading at $ 2.69 a
pound late Friday and ended the week up 2.86%, and platinum was up 0.69% on the day at $ 988.45 an
ounce. In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls
report for January as well as Wednesday’s policy statement by the Fed. Investors will also be watching
central bank meetings in Japan and the UK. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a
list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 30
Financial markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on inflation.
The U.S. is to release figures on personal income and spending as well as a report on pending home
sales.
Tuesday, January 31
Markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.
The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which
outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement
is to be followed by a press conference.

The euro zone is to release preliminary estimates of consumer price inflation and fourth quarter GDP.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.
Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP.
The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Alberta.
Wednesday, February 1
Markets in China will remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.
China is to release survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity.
New Zealand is to publish its quarterly employment report.
The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.
The European Commission is to publish its latest economic forecasts for the European Union.
The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report for January and the Institute for Supply
Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.
The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a monetary policy statement.

Thursday, February 2
Markets in China will remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Australia is to release data on building approvals and the trade balance.
The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.
The Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish the minutes of its monetary
policy meeting along with its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney, along with other
policymakers will also hold a press conference to discuss the inflation report.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Slovenia.
The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and labor costs.

Friday, February 3
China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI.
The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is to speak.
The U.S. is to round up the week data on factory orders and the non-farm payrolls report for January,
while the ISM is to release its services PMI.
Gold demand in India improved this week, boosted by a fall in prices overseas, although some
consumers waited to see if hopes for an import duty cut in the government's budget next week will be
realised.
Global gold prices on Friday hit a two-week low on a stronger dollar keeping the metal on track to
record their first weekly loss since late December. "Wedding season demand has improved. The price
correction is also luring in customers," said Harshad Ajmera, the proprietor of JJ Gold House, a
wholesaler in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata. Dealers in India, the world's second-largest consumer
of the metal, were charging a premium of up to $2 an ounce this week over official domestic prices,
unchanged from last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Few jewellers are
delaying purchases expecting import duty cut in the budget, but some think this may not happen," said a
Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. The bullion industry has been urging a reduction in the duty
to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised import duty to 10 percent in August 2013
in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit.
"The government is going to implement GST this year. At the time of implementation, it may reduce
import duty to adjust overall duty structure on gold," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.
The trade ministry has requested the finance ministry to cut the import duty to 6 percent, according to a
senior government official. The Indian government will present on Feb. 1 its budget for the 2017/18
financial year starting April 1. the local market, gold prices MAUc1 were trading around 28,150 rupees
per 10 grams on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees last month, the lowest level since Feb. 2, 2016
Demand in China waned further, ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year Holiday, forcing premiums
in the top-consumer nation to narrow to nearly $6 from $14 last week. "It has been extremely quiet
despite the correction in prices," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong
Kong. In Hong Kong and Singapore, premiums were mostly unchanged from previous week's premium
of around $1 - $1.40 an ounce. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong rose 2.7 percent
in December over the previous month. in Tokyo were flat against a discount of 50 cents last week,
traders said.


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