Commodity Research Report 03 April 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - The precious metal had a great start in the beginning of this year. Gold prices rose from $ 1130
– 1260 per ounce, within a period of 2 and half months. In Gold international spot market But
somehow the bullish tone could not keep up till the end of February. After testing the resistance level at
1250.00, Gold prices saw a sharp selloff to 1200.00. Later prices did rebound from 1200.00, but it
resulted in a sense of uncertainty for traders. Market sentiment is neutral for now, Keep watching the
price action till we get some clarity. uncertainty surrounding the impact of Britain's departure from the
European Union and upcoming French elections offered support MCX gold from high where little
selling registered around the resistance when we told the above target may found up to 28636 and
28855 it showed above price of 29948 by achieving the target easily. We had stated clearly that stand
into the buy position on Rs.28147 the support did not break and rise registered up to 540 since buying
from the low Rs.28392 on the other hand; we mentioned $1207 as near support which was not broken
during the week and showed .
Monday, 3 April .2017
Chart Details -The Gold facing a Key resistance level at 1250.00. Price action must clearly breach
this level to continue further positive growth. Temporary fluctuations and noises beyond this
resistance level can’t be considered as a valid breakout, prices should break and retest 1250.00, only
then we can expect the positive tone to continue. Market may get more volatile in coming days, so
traders must have a tight risk management while initiating trades. MCX gold from high where little
selling registered around the resistance above target may found up to 28660 and 28800 it showed
above price of 29980 by achieving the target easily. We had stated clearly that stand into the buy
position on Rs. 28180 the support did not break and rise registered up to 540 since buying from the
low Rs. 28400 on the other hand. MCX gold makes bump and run reversal top pattern on technical
chart which shows boom will remain unchanged with short covering on near support 28354 from the
decline. Below target can be seen up to 28084 by breaking 28354 with heavy volume and giving
close below it.
SILVER - Technical and fundamental factors point to a short-term retracement of silver before it
moves higher again in the coming weeks. The declining trend line and some stochastic readings
indicate a reversal in coming sessions. But short-term losses should be capped by the 23.6%
Fibonacci level at around the $17.791 level, with the precious metal thereafter expected to resume its
upward trend. The ABCD wave, which aims to identify support and resistance levels, backs this
argument. The exponential moving average and the moving average convergence and divergence are
also supportive of a long-term bullish trend. As a result, silver could resume its upward movement
toward the $ 19 level, a point at which it is likely to meet strong resistance. From a fundamental point
of view, the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies is underpinning demand for
safe-haven assets such as precious metals. This was witnessed by the market reaction to the failure of
the Republican healthcare reform bill to gain support in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Detail of Chart -There is upper Bollinger band of the strong improving pro move is becoming on Rs.
42600 in MCX gold which can be considered as the near Resistance. It is likely to remain little
profitable selling in the surge of below Rs.42784 when we told quick above target may found up to
42980 by crossing the given Resistance with the strong volume and giving close on it.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices retraced losses on Friday after a Federal Reserve official said the central bank was in no rush
to tighten monetary policy this year. Gold for April delivery settled up 0.19% at $1,247.4 on the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having touched lows of $1,246.4 earlier. Gold moved
higher after New York Fed President William Dudley said Friday that it made sense to raise rates at a
gradual pace this year. Expectations of a slower pace of rate increases tend to boost gold, which is
denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. The
precious metal ended the quarter with a gain of almost 8.5% boosted by the weaker dollar and growing
doubts over whether the Trump administration's economic proposals would boost the U.S. economy and
allow the Fed to tighten policy more aggressively. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was up
0.3% at $18.26 a troy ounce late Friday.In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s Fed
minutes for fresh indications on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike ahead of Friday’s closely watched
nonfarm payrolls report. Investors will also be eyeing a trio of surveys on UK private sector activity amid
ongoing concerns over the economic impact of Brexit.
Gold demand in India rose this week due to a festival and as local prices adjusted to an appreciating rupee,
while higher prices kept a check on demand elsewhere in Asia. The Gudi Padwa festival, also known as
Ugadi in some parts of the country, was held earlier this week. Buying gold during festivals is considered
auspicious in the world's second-biggest market."Retail demand improved due to Gudi Padwa and a drop
in prices," Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic
prices. They were charging a premium of $2.00 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent
import tax. The demand is likely to remain firm next month due to another festival, Akshaya Tritiya, and
the start of the wedding season, In the local market gold futures MAUc1 were trading around 28,500
rupees per 10 grams on Friday, down 1 percent from a week ago. The Indian rupee has risen 4.8 percent
against the U.S. dollar so far in 2017, partly offsetting gains in overseas gold prices. "Jewellery demand
has been good so far this year, but investment demand is still weak. Investors are more interested in the
stock market," In top consumer China, premiums fell to about $8 to $10 an ounce against the international
benchmark XAU= from levels $10 to $12 last week. Gold remained steady on Friday with global political
uncertainty, the upcoming elections in Europe in particular, seen supporting prices of the yellow metal,
driving the metal to its best quarter in a year Premiums in China had risen early this month as traders said
supplies of the precious metal were limited due to tightening import restrictions to stem currency outflows.
were quoted in a 70 cents to $1 range in Hong Kong, mostly unchanged from last week. In Japan, traders
saw the precious metal at a discount of $1, due to lack of any significant demand.
Gold prices edged lower for a third straight session on Thursday, adding to their decline from a one-month
high reached at the start of the week as the dollar strengthened amid expectations for more U.S. interest
rate hikes this year. Comex gold futures dipped $3.20, or around 0.3%, to $1,250.50 a troy ounce by
3:00AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was down $2.50 at $1,251.10. Gold hit its strongest since February 27
at $1,264.20 on Monday. Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery shed 6.4 cents, or about
0.4%, to $18.18 a troy ounce. In the previous session, the metal touched its highest since March 2 at
$18.27. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of
six major currencies, was at 99.86 in London morning trade. It rose to an overnight high of 99.99,
extending a bounce off a four-and-a-half month low of 98.67 touched on Monday. The greenback was
boosted by hawkish comments from a number of Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday, including
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. There are three
more Fed speakers on the calendar for Thursday. New York Fed chief William Dudley is expected to be
the most important, with a 4:30PM ET discussion on financial conditions and monetary policy. San
Francisco Fed President Williams speaks at 11AM ET, while Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks
at 3PM in New York. On the data front, investors will have initial jobless claims and the final look at
fourth quarter GDP, both released at 8:30AM ET. The Fed raised interest rates earlier this month and
stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year. Fed fund futures priced in around a 50% chance of a rate
hike in June. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 70%. The precious metal is sensitive to
moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A
gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await further details on President Donald
Trump's promises of tax reform following the House's failure to vote on a plan to replace Obamacare last
week. Elsewhere in metals trading, platinum tacked on 0.4% to $959.70, while palladium declined 0.3% to
$787.62 an ounce.May copper futures dropped 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.662 a pound.
Gold prices edged lower during European morning hours on Wednesday, pulling further away from its
strongest level in a month as investors braced for formal Brexit procedures to be triggered by the U.K.
government later in the day. British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon
Treaty later on Wednesday, formally beginning the two-year process of exiting the European Union. May
will send a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk on Wednesday formally announcing
Britain's withdrawal from the bloc. The correspondence will start the clock ticking on a two-year
countdown to Brexit and allow negotiations to start between London and Brussels in the coming weeks.
Comex gold futures dipped $5.95, or around 0.5%, to $ 1,249.65 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET. Meanwhile,
spot gold was down $1.90 at $ 1,250.10. Gold hit its strongest since February 27 at $ 1,261.00 on Monday.
Market players also awaited comments from a number of Federal Reserve policymakers later in the
session for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans,
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are all scheduled to
speak throughout the day. The yellow metal ended Tuesday's session little changed, despite upbeat
economic data and rate hike chatter from a number of Fed officials. U.S. consumer confidence index hit