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16/01/2012 09:33

IndexTrader BETTER SPREAD
US Credit rating | Day

are doing offers
ssional investors
structure
However, profe
the best way to
some insight into
experts are
current climate.
positions in the
, Euro,
up of the dollar
now warning
The G4 – made
ionally
have all tradit
–
yen
investors not
the
sterling and
safe,
large, liquid and
to get carried
been considered
at risk of a
is
g had or being
away as there
with all havin
but
may
ing currencies
no way gold can
ster,
downgrade, emerg
Lanca
ative
Henry
ects.
be a real altern
offer better prosp
s, says he
as an
analyst at Coutt
to the US dollar
n will
senior investment
the same
erm G4 depreciatio
asset offering
believes the long-t
d remember
James
but investors shoul
ue,
level of security.
contin
atives are not
st
currency altern
r markets analy
that emerging
Hughes, senio
gold is often
necessarily ‘safe’.
ier Asian and
at Alpari UK, says
health
ever
and
ger
when
ght
d
He says: “Stron
growth starve
in the media spotli
mies will lure
because of its store
emerging econo
ciation.
crises materialise
.
g currency appre
ived safety value
investors drivin
veraged
of value and perce “Gold is not
th of the less-le
s:
The stronger grow economies will be a
However, he warn
se
ing
ative mainly becau big
Asian and emerg
yieldand
th
A
a tangible altern
grow
nce.
for
h of it in existe
considerable lure
there is not enoug
so well is
ors.”
is outperforming
ncies,
starved invest
reason why gold
boost their curre
expectation
This, in turn will
lative buying in
es these
because of specu
ster who believ
globe.”
along
according to Lanca
news around the
st for
the longer term
of further bad
io, currency analy
appreciate over
will
Vecch
odity
opher
ntial
Christ
substa
through comm
s: “There is also
with those linked
DailyFX.com, agree gold futures, and one
st in
speculative intere

it rating
Day TraDIng | US Cred

f favour
Falling out o
wing the
e ‘safe havens’ follo
idering alternativ
Investors are cons Brown looks at the options
ael
downgrade. Mich

dollar’s

too
rkets are simply
‘Swiss capital ma date a large proportion
mo
small to accom ital.’
of the world’s cap

John
Clarke, chief
r
investment office
Markets,
at GHC Capital
were
says if the US dollar r, we
of favou
completely out
ury
Treas
wouldn’t see US
at alpari uk
year yields
kets analyst
bonds, with 10
senior mar
50 year low
James HugHes,
dropping to a
cent in late
and Canadian
of just over 2 per
the Australian
exports such as
“At the same
t sell off
egian Krone.
August. He says:
marke
er
to
ve
broad
a
Dollar and Norw
safe havens
ential relati
gets the sense that
le they are not
raging in gold
time, the differ
than
He adds: “Whi
significant deleve
commodity
, which was more
would cause a
sensitivity and
es in price.”
German bunds
of the year has
as sharp declin
in a crisis, given
provide
start
well
as
the
does
ts
ative
at
al
s
marke
t revers
quate altern
50 basis point
prices, the recen
.”
not the only inade
es.”
is
letely
in
tuniti
Gold
comp
sted
d
oppor
g
sugge
disappeare
with recent
that has been
attractive buyin
that compared
to the US dollar
Swiss
“The
says:
Clarke admits
Hughes
gold, the
but
in the price of
trading circles.
developments
d but
strong and safe
one of a kind usness of investors in
been left way behin
franc is immensely are simply too small
nervo
greenback has
ets
as a function
In spite of the
ns that the
can be viewed
Swiss capital mark
rtion of the
s, the fact remai
claims that this
trading forum
te a large propo
level of US short
have held up
political
to accommoda
extremely low
US treasuries
of the current
Euro has huge
US dollar and
ls just how
’s capital. The
and
e
world
rates.
st which signa
st
demis
its
intere
to
term
reduced
.
well during Augu
could lead
has effectively
problems that
to view the dollar
strong move
ue
a
st
nting
contin
He adds: “This
intere
ets
preve
zero
is
mark
says a
cost of holding
this uncertainty
gers.
topher Vecchio
the opportunity
DailyFX’s Chris
large asset mana
between
stic
such as gold.”
into the Euro by
dollar performed
bearing assets
ise, is not a fanta
look at how the
2009 low
March
“The Yen, likew
the
mic
and
’s econo
September 2008
because of Japan
greenback might
ative
is
ion
the
altern
Japan
how
CaUt
s
es.
Call for that has been the subject
past two decad
in equities, show
fall into
malaise for the
debt to
d global markets
Gold is a theme
boards in
ng a 200 per cent
perform shoul
y been
r on discussion
currently runni
.
of much chatte
s.
would have alread
recession again
the Dow
s in recent week
GDP ratio which
ng that period,
that most
investment circle
to rocket, day
of
He says: “Duri
not for the fact
gold continues
catastrophic if
Index (composed
ly owned.”
g up
As the price of
Jones FXCM dollar , sterling, Euro and
to resist talkin
debt is domestical
hard
ese
it
fore,
Japan
there
found
dollar
traders have
also remember,
sedly offers.
the Australian
) gained over
are
y’ that is suppo
Traders should
Yen
dollar
‘safet
the
US
of
the
and
st
level
the
st at
Yen again
Swiss Franc
g
on, market analy
that while the
d in the comin
groun
Michael Hews
been
cent.
per
some
have
s
12
up
strong bull
says gold buyer
likely to make
is poised for a
threatened by
CMC Markets,
little
“The US dollar
currencies are
turn for the
has no yield and
months, both
have signaled
global economy
arguing that gold
could be said
l banks, which
very well
run should the
r, but the same
their own centra
. While gold may
ss the value of
“the
it
purchasing powe
worse once again
ion to begin depre
inflation risks,
moment. He says:
on
intent
the
at
an
ciate
ncies
appre
for curre
attractive
a simple
continue to
is becoming an
e the dollar for
these currencies.
d,
ely
key reason gold
is unlikely to replac
and comparativ
it cannot be printe
s of
– there is a finite
n
investment is that
ter
whim
reaso
.” z
the
Shel
to
adjusted
finding
the precious metal
s’ realistically
manipulated or
rs, which
small supply of
lled ‘safe haven
banke
l
so-ca
with
centra
So,
what
governments and
rise to US
supply, analysing
der | 15
potential for a
being in short
March 2012 | IndexTra
suggests that the
hs looks likely.”
next few mont
$2,500 over the

N

s agency
ews that rating
Standard & Poor’s
credit rating
downgraded the
, sent
of the United States
gh global
a tremour throu
ssment
rs, it meant a reasse
markets. For trade nment bonds effectively
gover
that American
but it also raised
‘risk-free’ asset
represented a
Dollar should
whether the US
.
questions over
choice
of
aven currency
be their safe-h
have been
downgrade may
While the S&P
rs, those
retail day trade
been
a trigger for many
things had long
tional
institu
on the
now the right
whether it was
thinking about

agrees that
the greenback
has lost some
of its shine
and believes
that the Swiss
Franc is now
one of the safe
.
havens of choice
see
He says: “We will
re on the
tack.
increased pressu
relating
time to change
news
impending
ive
of negat
dollar with the
A steady stream
of money
already
round
2007
since
(third
my
QE3
to the US econo
low rates and
l banks to move
ng),
centra
printi
many
triggered
re and expect
es away from
of their reserv
inflationary pressu
in
increasing levels
and Swiss
a run that is now
into Euros, Yen
gold to continue
first
the US dollar and
the
into a bubble.
of
g
Russia was one
danger of turnin
through a
Francs. In fact,
certainly going
is
per cent of
)
50
dollar
than
“(The
more
the channel
nations to have
es in alternative
, but looking over
patch
reserv
ncy
rough
rned with
its foreign curre
not everyone
I am more conce
US dollar, but
to the Eurozone,
t the dollar
currencies to the
there and expec
what is going on
hs ahead.”
mont
the
in
is in agreement.
fixed
status
global head of
is likely to
to claw back its
nt,
Paul Griffiths,
that the dollar
geme
view
s
Mana
dden’
McCu
een Asset
although few
income at Aberd
becoming
is widely held,
l investors are
regain its status
volumes will return
says professiona
atives rather than
e that investment
altern
believ
of
2007.
e
more aware
ssed befor
. He explains:
to the levels witne
to the US dollar
te
alloca
replacements
to
ue
ors will contin
“Cautious invest
nothing newdefensive
so than
but perhaps less
US fearS aredollar
as investors’
to dollar assets
other
d also invest in
The death of the
ring topic in
before and instea
has been a recur
asset of choice
g industries
currencies.”
US dollar
gement and tradin
believe that the
the fund mana
ors have
mic
However, some
US econo
now and invest
for many years
r pressure as the
be completely
s.
to
mind
will see furthe
ation
ors
resisted the tempt
heavily on invest
Franc has
policy weighs
Swiss
the
ed.
that
the
It is certainly true Swiss authorities reap spook
simple. While
The reason is quite against the Swiss
as the
been riding high
responsible
sharply
running a more
dollar has fallen
great ‘safe
the rewards for
up as the next
Franc – often held
vely stable. In
fiscal policy.
gains which
remained relati
risen
been significant
haven’ – it has
The result has
, it has actually
ahead – a
hs
terms
mont
hted
the
ue for
trade-weig
volatility struck
policy
look set to contin
cent since the
wledged by Swiss
around one per
fact that was ackno . Mike McCudden,
week
at the end of July.
makers only last
Investor,
tives at Interactive
head of deriva
March 2012
14 | IndexTrader |

TraDIng

.uk
www.indextrader.co

.uk
www.indextrader.co

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IndexTrader BETTER SPREAD
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IndexTrader BETTER SPREAD
it rating
Day TraDIng | US Cred

nities
Big opportu grade
n
from US dow

it
onset of the cred
of flack since the .
wn
have received a lot
Ratings agencies y be trusted now, asks Michael bro
the
uld
crunch. Sho

it rating by
de of the US cred
ons
recent downgra
g for political reas
leading to the
owledged as bein
ircumstances
d the
’s was widely ackn investors have since considere
Standard & Poor
ede a big move
. However,
prec
ones
y
cies
etar
agen
gs
rather than mon
s from credit ratin
sign
ing
warn
h
extent to whic
ities.
rtunities
encies or commod potentially present big oppo
their
in indices, curr
ings could
Moody’s make
these agency warn
dard & Poors or
markets,
For day traders,
cies such as Stan
big impact on
oks can have a
n the larger agen
outlo
and
can prompt
gs
ges
ratin
particularly whe
e chan
credit
d. In turn, thes
ts. Changes in
to make
ipate
men
look
s
antic
unce
ician
anno
not been
as polit
etary policies
the changes have
if
mon
rly
term
icula
part
and long
both short term
big changes in
ntial crises.
pote
t
aver
to
changes
at Capital
l, head of sales
Angus Campbel
uncements
that recent anno
Spreads, notes
as opposed to
be downgrades
have tended to
movements have
ket
mar
p
spotted
upgrades but shar
r investors have
followed and cleve
have seen
He explains, ‘We
eAds
the opportunity.
European
CApitAl spr
ngrades, mostly
of sAles At
off of
a number of dow
sell
pbell, heAd
a
to
led
often
Angus CAm
of gold.
states, which has
rmine medium
a spike in the price
can help to dete
you
they
,
dy’s
riskier assets and
ever
Moo
or
How
encies.’
sions from S&P
rise as
stocks and curr
a
Following deci
ling started to
term trends for
in equities and
d
icting a global
He explains, ‘Ster
ct to see a fall
being addresse
e analysts pred
erns
som
can often expe
conc
With
difficult
of gold.’
markets saw their
th and another
. After a period
grow
in
ened
n
to
as
rise in the price
dow
tight
y
slow
was
reliability of
for a case stud
as fiscal policy
subsequently
economy, the
Traders looking
gs outlook was
d once
period for the
cies can influence than
time, the ratin
s set to be teste
of
agen
look
ok.’
gs
cies
ratin
outlo
le
agen
how
further
ratings
to a stab
y need look no
changed back
ts worldwide have
monetary polic
being put on
more. Economis
decisions
experience after
e of the difficult
ral
the recent UK
applauded som
y
ilit
r to the last gene
y
in recent months,
iab
prio
etar
cies
ok
Rel
mon
agen
outlo
gs
ence
a negative
ty to influ
taken by ratin
the greatest
.
Despite their abili
rtunities,
suggested that
at CMC,
election in 2010
te trading oppo
but it has been
markets analyst
policy and crea
ised heavily
e.
Michael Hewson,
have been critic
egist at
test is yet to com
UK government
ratings agencies
ing shot to the
chief market strat
and the
says this warn
inability of
Josh Raymond,
financial crisis
susta
are still in
2008
the
cies
’s
the
on
s
agen
Poor
gs
since
ratin
dard &
concentrated mind
ains,
it.
the US by Stan
City Index, says
ibility. He expl
ket.
downgrade of
UK budget defic
sive fight for cred
tion in the mar
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reac
and have
a
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r
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He explains, ‘It
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ks, research dire
outcome of
‘They have beco
cy
as they see it whic
Kathleen Broo
an effect on the
ng of rating agen
call the market
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timi
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ter
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says
with
as well
ion in 2010
Forex.com
the market
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the general elect
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ts tend to be after
entering another
tion. has help
yields were trad
announcemen
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disorderly reac
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spar
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sterl
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rtun
fisca
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ly the case.
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above four per
the currency
is not necessari
economic dow
y.’
aggressively on
it rating is
However, this
re their credibilit
was getting sold
a country’s cred
ty of the
for them tor resto
if agencies
She explains, ‘If
doubted the abili
ond warns that
bad news since
markets as they
mitigate a
However, Raym
ers
this is generally
to take steps to
time, then trad
rise which
downgraded,
nd
ent
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rnm
a
g
costs
gove
g
UK
the
owin
get it wron
nt overhaul of
tively
ifica
the country’s borr
ngrade.’
nega
sign
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ct
ntial
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and
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growth
should expe
ething which
ge of governm
.
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Whether the chan
the local currency
outlook by
ratings system
by European
it
ct equities and
to the negative
d
ested
cred
impa
bute
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try’s
attri
been
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ble,
a
directly
has already
other hand, if
Claude Trichet.
time is questiona
the
the
Jean
‘On
t
at
the
iden
cies
pres
have
ratings agen
were
, this can
Central Bank
take years
nt spending cuts
rating is increased
ains, ‘It will still
but the subseque
Raymond expl
t.’
g some of the
a complete
opposite effec
d at addressin
credit
talking about
certainly aime
investors that
– we could be
is nothing that
Brooks reminds
d by agencies.
system. There
end all,
concerns raise
the be all and
overhaul of the
implemented
only happen
not
ges
will
e
are
it
gs
chan
eciat
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t
the
ratin
nigh
Hewson says
forex traders appr
after
’
can be done over
ng their wounds. z
government soon
although seasoned
‘They should be
by the coalition
people start licki
nce. She says,
as investors
react to. once
their significa
yields to drop
ts that investors
rnment’s
prompted gilt
inpu
gove
y
er.co.uk
the
man
of
the
one of
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confident
became more
it.
the defic
ability to tackle

C

or Moody’s
ions from S&P
‘Following decis pect to see a fall in
ex
you can often e in the price of gold’
equities and a ris

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