IC presentation Julian Cribb (PDF)
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The Coming Famine:
risks and opportunities for global food security
Julian Cribb FTSE
Nuffield International Conference
Adelaide, September 30, 2011
Food demand doubles by 2060s
Global
food
demand
A ‘wicked’ problem....
DEMAND:
242,000 more people every day
More babies + longer lives
Population >10-11 bn
Food demand soars in emerging
economies
>600 petacalories/day
Total food demand to double by
2060s
CONSTRAINTS:
‘Peak water’
‘Peak land’
‘Peak oil’
‘Peak P’
‘Peak fish’
‘R&D drought’
‘Capital drought’
‘Climate extinction’
Peak water
“Current estimates indicate we will not
have enough water to feed ourselves in
25 years time...”
– Colin Chartres, IWMI
Groundwater mining
Disappearing rivers
Vanishing lakes
Shrinking glaciers
Food embodies water...
Total human water use:
7450 cubic kms
We each use 1240t/yr
In a lifetime, we use:
100,000 tonnes
Peak Land : 2001
24% of the world’s land is now degraded
4.95
4.9
4.85
Area per person
Peak land: FAO
1% of the world’s land is
being lost each year.
Megacities: mega-risks
By 2050...
By 2030...
7.7 billion will live in cities
Total urban area = China
Urban water use 2800 cu kms
Cities cannot feed themselves
Nutrients are finite…
Peak phosphorus
Nutrient
pollution
World P reserves
The Great Waste
Food wasted by avg. family in a month. (USDA)
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