PokemonGo DistributionMath

Odds of "Catching Em All" with Staggered Release vs. Full G1 + G2 Release 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Starting with: 154 available* 100.00% 99.35% 98.70% 98.05% 97.40% 96.75% 96.10% 95.45% 94.81% 94.16% 93.51% 92.86% 92.21% 91.56% 90.91% 90.26% 89.61% 88.96% 88.31% 87.66% 87.01% 86.36% 85.71% 85.06% 84.42% 83.77% 83.12% 82.47% 81.82% 81.17% 80.52% 79.87% 79.22% 78.57% 77.92% 77.27% 76.62% 75.97% 75.32% 74.68% 74.03% "Tries" 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 Starting with: 240 available* 100.00% 99.58% 99.17% 98.75% 98.33% 97.92% 97.50% 97.08% 96.67% 96.25% 95.83% 95.42% 95.00% 94.58% 94.17% 93.75% 93.33% 92.92% 92.50% 92.08% 91.67% 91.25% 90.83% 90.42% 90.00% 89.58% 89.17% 88.75% 88.33% 87.92% 87.50% 87.08% 86.67% 86.25% 85.83% 85.42% 85.00% 84.58% 84.17% 83.75% 83.33% "Tries" 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.20  42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 73.38% 72.73% 72.08% 71.43% 70.78% 70.13% 69.48% 68.83% 68.18% 67.53% 66.88% 66.23% 65.58% 64.94% 64.29% 63.64% 62.99% 62.34% 61.69% 61.04% 60.39% 59.74% 59.09% 58.44% 57.79% 57.14% 56.49% 55.84% 55.19% 54.55% 53.90% 53.25% 52.60% 51.95% 51.30% 50.65% 50.00% 49.35% 48.70% 48.05% 47.40% 46.75% 46.10% 45.45% 44.81% 44.16% 43.51% 1.36 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.57 1.59 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.67 1.69 1.71 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.79 1.81 1.83 1.86 1.88 1.90 1.93 1.95 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.05 2.08 2.11 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.23 2.26 2.30 82.92% 82.50% 82.08% 81.67% 81.25% 80.83% 80.42% 80.00% 79.58% 79.17% 78.75% 78.33% 77.92% 77.50% 77.08% 76.67% 76.25% 75.83% 75.42% 75.00% 74.58% 74.17% 73.75% 73.33% 72.92% 72.50% 72.08% 71.67% 71.25% 70.83% 70.42% 70.00% 69.58% 69.17% 68.75% 68.33% 67.92% 67.50% 67.08% 66.67% 66.25% 65.83% 65.42% 65.00% 64.58% 64.17% 63.75% 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.56 1.57  89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 42.86% 42.21% 41.56% 40.91% 40.26% 39.61% 38.96% 38.31% 37.66% 37.01% 36.36% 35.71% 35.06% 34.42% 33.77% 33.12% 32.47% 31.82% 31.17% 30.52% 29.87% 29.22% 28.57% 27.92% 27.27% 26.62% 25.97% 25.32% 24.68% 24.03% 23.38% 22.73% 22.08% 21.43% 20.78% 20.13% 19.48% 18.83% 18.18% 17.53% 16.88% 16.23% 15.58% 14.94% 14.29% 13.64% 12.99% 2.33 2.37 2.41 2.44 2.48 2.52 2.57 2.61 2.66 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.91 2.96 3.02 3.08 3.14 3.21 3.28 3.35 3.42 3.50 3.58 3.67 3.76 3.85 3.95 4.05 4.16 4.28 4.40 4.53 4.67 4.81 4.97 5.13 5.31 5.50 5.70 5.92 6.16 6.42 6.70 7.00 7.33 7.70 63.33% 62.92% 62.50% 62.08% 61.67% 61.25% 60.83% 60.42% 60.00% 59.58% 59.17% 58.75% 58.33% 57.92% 57.50% 57.08% 56.67% 56.25% 55.83% 55.42% 55.00% 54.58% 54.17% 53.75% 53.33% 52.92% 52.50% 52.08% 51.67% 51.25% 50.83% 50.42% 50.00% 49.58% 49.17% 48.75% 48.33% 47.92% 47.50% 47.08% 46.67% 46.25% 45.83% 45.42% 45.00% 44.58% 44.17% 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.78 1.79 1.80 1.82 1.83 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.89 1.90 1.92 1.94 1.95 1.97 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 2.24 2.26  136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 12.34% 11.69% 11.04% 10.39% 9.74% 9.09% 8.44% 7.79% 7.14% 6.49% 5.84% 5.19% 4.55% 3.90% 3.25% 2.60% 1.95% 1.30% 36.25% 35.83% 35.42% 35.00% 34.58% 34.17% 33.75% 33.33% 32.92% 32.50% 32.08% 31.67% 31.25% 30.83% 30.42% 30.00% 29.58% 29.17% 28.75% 28.33% 27.92% 27.50% 27.08% 26.67% 26.25% 25.83% 25.42% 25.00% 24.58% 8.11 8.56 9.06 9.63 10.27 11.00 11.85 12.83 14.00 15.40 17.11 19.25 22.00 25.67 30.80 38.50 51.33 77.00 2.76 2.79 2.82 2.86 2.89 2.93 2.96 3.00 3.04 3.08 3.12 3.16 3.20 3.24 3.29 3.33 3.38 3.43 3.48 3.53 3.58 3.64 3.69 3.75 3.81 3.87 3.93 4.00 4.07 43.75% 43.33% 42.92% 42.50% 42.08% 41.67% 41.25% 40.83% 40.42% 40.00% 39.58% 39.17% 38.75% 38.33% 37.92% 37.50% 37.08% 36.67% 36.25% 35.83% 35.42% 35.00% 34.58% 34.17% 33.75% 33.33% 32.92% 32.50% 32.08% 31.67% 31.25% 30.83% 30.42% 30.00% 29.58% 29.17% 28.75% 28.33% 27.92% 27.50% 27.08% 26.67% 26.25% 25.83% 25.42% 25.00% 24.58% 2.29 2.31 2.33 2.35 2.38 2.40 2.42 2.45 2.47 2.50 2.53 2.55 2.58 2.61 2.64 2.67 2.70 2.73 2.76 2.79 2.82 2.86 2.89 2.93 2.96 3.00 3.04 3.08 3.12 3.16 3.20 3.24 3.29 3.33 3.38 3.43 3.48 3.53 3.58 3.64 3.69 3.75 3.81 3.87 3.93 4.00 4.07  183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 24.17% 23.75% 23.33% 22.92% 22.50% 22.08% 21.67% 21.25% 20.83% 20.42% 20.00% 19.58% 19.17% 18.75% 18.33% 17.92% 17.50% 17.08% 16.67% 16.25% 15.83% 15.42% 15.00% 14.58% 14.17% 13.75% 13.33% 12.92% 12.50% 12.08% 11.67% 11.25% 10.83% 10.42% 10.00% 9.58% 9.17% 8.75% 8.33% 7.92% 7.50% 7.08% 6.67% 6.25% 5.83% 5.42% 5.00% 4.14 4.21 4.29 4.36 4.44 4.53 4.62 4.71 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.11 5.22 5.33 5.45 5.58 5.71 5.85 6.00 6.15 6.32 6.49 6.67 6.86 7.06 7.27 7.50 7.74 8.00 8.28 8.57 8.89 9.23 9.60 10.00 10.43 10.91 11.43 12.00 12.63 13.33 14.12 15.00 16.00 17.14 18.46 20.00 24.17% 23.75% 23.33% 22.92% 22.50% 22.08% 21.67% 21.25% 20.83% 20.42% 20.00% 19.58% 19.17% 18.75% 18.33% 17.92% 17.50% 17.08% 16.67% 16.25% 15.83% 15.42% 15.00% 14.58% 14.17% 13.75% 13.33% 12.92% 12.50% 12.08% 11.67% 11.25% 10.83% 10.42% 10.00% 9.58% 9.17% 8.75% 8.33% 7.92% 7.50% 7.08% 6.67% 6.25% 5.83% 5.42% 5.00% 4.14 4.21 4.29 4.36 4.44 4.53 4.62 4.71 4.80 4.90 5.00 5.11 5.22 5.33 5.45 5.58 5.71 5.85 6.00 6.15 6.32 6.49 6.67 6.86 7.06 7.27 7.50 7.74 8.00 8.28 8.57 8.89 9.23 9.60 10.00 10.43 10.91 11.43 12.00 12.63 13.33 14.12 15.00 16.00 17.14 18.46 20.00  230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 4.58% 4.17% 3.75% 3.33% 2.92% 2.50% 2.08% 1.67% 1.25% 0.83% 0.42% Average Tries: 21.82 24.00 26.67 30.00 34.29 40.00 48.00 60.00 80.00 120.00 240.00 1922.81 4.58% 4.17% 3.75% 3.33% 2.92% 2.50% 2.08% 1.67% 1.25% 0.83% 0.42% Average Tries: 21.82 24.00 26.67 30.00 34.29 40.00 48.00 60.00 80.00 120.00 240.00 1454.38 * 154 available refers to all pokemon currently available in the game globally, including region exclusives * 240 available refers to all non-legendary and non-mythical pokemon anticipated with a "full" release of Gen 2 - This assumes even distribution for simplicity, as if species were merely a number on a 154 or 240 sided die. Real distribution is far more complex, but will exacerbate this difference, making a full release even more favorable. Furthermore, having to travel to catch pokemon -twice- would not benefit people just getting the game in their area.